Agriculture Outlook 2010
23-25 June, 2010
London, UK
Global Outlook Day - Wednesday 23 June 2010
8.20am
Registration and breakfast
8.50am
CHAIRMAN’S OPENING REMARKS
Division Head, Agri-food Trade & Markets, OECD
GLOBAL MACRO TRENDS
9am
OPENING KEYNOTE ADDRESS: The future of agriculture - “supply crisis” or “green revolution”?
- The historical context: where are we now?
- What are the biggest supply threats of the next 5 years, and how significant are they?
- Where are the opportunities?
- What are the critical success factors for an efficient and sustainable agriculture sector?
Managing Director, Global Government and Corporate Affairs, Bunge
9.40am
GUEST ADDRESS: Challenges and opportunities for the future CAP
Commissioner for Agriculture & Rural Development, European Commission
10.20am
KEYNOTE PANEL DISCUSSION: Food security - was the 2008 price spike a one-off market blip or a sign of things to come?
- Is food security a real challenge, or just a buzzword?
- To what extent is food security primarily a political issue?
- What caused the 2008 food crisis, and was there an overreaction?
- Where are food prices heading in the short-, medium- and long-term?
Managing Director, Global Government and Corporate Affairs, Bunge
Director, Agriculture Division, WTO Secretariat, World Trade Organization
Commissioner for Agriculture & Rural Development, European Commission
Director, Trade and Markets Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Economic Research Service, USDA
11am
Morning refreshments and networking
11.30am
Business models in agriculture: will vertical integration deliver?
- A review of traditional business models in agriculture
- Which types of farmers are starting to forward integrate, and how?
- Which agri-businesses are starting to backward integrate?
- Is there any evidence yet that vertical integration makes economic sense?
- Is vertical integration a way of managing risk in the supply chain?
- Which business models are most likely to succeed?
Head of Agriculture & Agrifood, Credit Agricole
12.10pm
Why Direct Farmland Investment will outperform Commodity Futures and Agriculture Equities
- A review of historical risk return profiles
- What are the implications of increased capital flow into commodity futures?
- Do commodity futures and farmland provide a hedge against inflation?
- What is the investible farmland universe?
- How and where to achieve enhanced returns in farmland investing
Managing Partner and CEO, Brookfield Brazil Agri (Group)
12.40pm
Risk and Reward in Global Farmland Investing
- An overview of global farmland investment areas
- Major risk categories
- Leasing v. operating - which is safer?
- Finding a balance between risk and reward - the EU-CEE region
CEO/CIO, Agrotrust
12.50pm
Networking Lunch
sponsored by: 
QUANTIFYING THE DEMAND OPPORTUNITY
2pm
Quantifying the future rise in global food demand: how big is the opportunity?
- What impact has the global recession had on food demand?
- Key factors influencing demand over the next 10 years
- How significant will China’s role be?
- Forecasting future demand and its sources over the next 5, 10 and 25 year periods
Division Head, Agri-food Trade & Markets, OECD
MANAGING THE SUPPLY THREATS
2.35pm
Water quality and scarcity: are there cost-effective solutions?
- Why are changes in water supply affecting agriculture in different world regions?
- Assessing the economics of desalination: why isn’t it working?
- The potential impact of this challenge on world agriculture
Chief Executive Officer, Seawater Greenhouse
3.10pm
How will weather changes affect production patterns over the next 5 years, and what are the solutions?
- How much better are we getting at predicting weather patterns over short-term time periods like 5 years?
- How can agriculture prepare for greater weather volatility?
- Should weather predictions really influence investor strategy?
Managing Director, AGRO, Munich Re
3.45pm
Speed Networking
4.45pm
HEAD-TO-HEAD DEBATE: Competing crops: to what extent do biofuels constrain global food supply?
- What evidence is there so far that biofuels have increased the price of food?
- How big of an impact on food production can biofuels have in the long-term?
Chief Operating Officer, CropEnergies
Head of Section, Agricultural & Food Policy, Agriculture Economics Research Institute
5.20pm
How big will the impact of soil degradation on a global scale be on agriculture?
- Examining the data: how serious is the problem?
- Where do the biggest threats come from: erosion, loss of nutrients, salinisation, contamination or desertification?
- Exploring solutions to each if these threats
- Is it feasible to develop farming systems that increase productivity without soil degradation?
- Exploring and assessing new approaches to managing land
Food & Farming Director, Soil Association
5.55pm
Moving forward: innovative solutions to quantify and manage the risk of disease, climate change and other threats
- Examining the impacts of pests and diseases on yields of food and cash crops
- How might climate change and increased trade affect the incidence and spread of these threats?
- What is needed relative to what is currently available with shortcomings in plant health information: dispersed, doubtful and uncoordinated data
- Developing real-time global plant health surveillance system
- Building a global plant health centre: the function and role of an integrated plant health information system
Chief Executive Officer, CABI
6.30pm
End of day one
- Farmland Opportunities Day - Thursday 24 June 20108.20am
Breakfast and networking
8.50am
CHAIRMAN’S OPENING REMARKS
INVESTING IN FARMLAND
9am
GUEST ADDRESS: Africa - a future bread basket for the world?
These are critical times. The dwindling of the Earth’s energy, water and food resources, within the context of global warming and geopolitical instability, poses a threat to humanity on a scale that might once have been unimaginable. Yet, we have been here before.
David Murrin has twenty-three years' experience analysing financial markets, but began formulating his theories on collective emotional behavioural patterns in Papua New Guinea. This experience, together with years of research into military history, has been instrumental in helping him to construct a macro view of geopolitics in the coming decades and the critical role Africa will play in deciding the future of civilisation and new empires.
Chief Investment Officer, Emergent Asset Management
9.40am
END INVESTOR PANEL: What farmland opportunities are investors looking for, and why?
- What expectations do investors have from farmland?
- Why did they pick the specific investments they made?
- Do they prefer a pure farmland investment or one combined with a particular farming activity?
- What world regions are they currently interested in?
Senior Portfolio Manager, Commodities, APG
Head of Pension Fund, Merseyside Pension Fund
Director, Global Private Markets, TIAA-CREF
Chairman of Trustees, BMS Group
10.20am
What farmland acquisition risks do you need to look out for, and how can you manage them?
- What are the trends and drivers behind recent farmland acquisition?
- What are the risks involved in acquiring farmland?
- How can you structure agricultural investments to manage these risks?
Senior Researcher, Sustainable Development, International Institute for Environment and Development
10.50am
Improving your acquisition due diligence: what pitfalls should you avoid?
11.20am
Morning refreshments and networking
11.50am
Combining farmland and farming to maximise returns: critical success factors
Founder and CEO, Jantzen Development A/S
REGION BY REGION FARMLAND ANALYSIS
12.20pm
What are the opportunities and risks of investing in these farmland regions?
This unique session for the rest of the day will deliver case studies from crop growers across the world, each focusing on a specific region and all of them answering the following questions:
- What was the original rationale behind investing in the land?
- How has the investment performed?
- How easy is it to navigate the regulatory framework in the region?
- Are there significant infrastructure challenges to investing in the region’s farmland?
- What is the geo-political risk of the region?
- To what extent does the case study example represent the region as a whole?
- Conclusion: what are the pros and cons of investing in the region?
12.20pm
Germany & Lithuania: Is a further rise in farmland prices unavoidable?
Chief Executive Officer, KTG Agrar
12.45pm
Poland, Romania & Czech Republic: Opportunities for scale in agriculture
Chief Executive Officer, Spearhead International
1.10pm
Ukraine: How will biofuel developments change the structure and role of agriculture?
Chief Executive Officer, Landkom International
1.35pm
Networking lunch
2.45pm
Argentina: The most efficient agriculture industry in the world?
President, Adecoagro
3.10pm
3.35pm
Bolivia & Uruguay: Overview and experiences in agriculture
Chief Executive Officer, El Tejar
4pm
Afternoon refreshments and networking
4.30pm
South Africa: Ownership of land in a politically volatile environment
Director of Operations, Senwes
4.55pm
Indonesia: Sustainable growth through socially responsible practices
Deputy Chief Operating Officer, Kencana Agri Limited
5.20pm
Drinks reception & networking
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Maximising Returns Through Farming Innovation Day - Friday 25 June 2010
8.20am
Breakfast and networking
8.50am
CHAIRMAN’S OPENING REMARKS
Partner, Conservation Finance International
9am
GUEST ADDRESS: How to attract permanent strategic funding in the Middle East: navigating the historical, cultural and political waters
Karim Shariff founded Majlis Investment Management with college classmate and friend Robert Bush Jr, and has spent many years managing the wealth of some of the biggest families in the Gulf. A truly inspirational speaker who will give you a unique insider’s insight into the mindset and motivations of the Middle Eastern investor, Karim also has the distinction
of having been held captive at gunpoint for 44 hours at the Oberoi in Mumbai in November 2008. As part of his Guest Address, Karim will discuss:
- Assessing the geopolitics of the region now and historically
- Surveying the new financial centers in the region and the new power politique
- Defining what is strategically relevant and the emerging sectoral themes by geography
Founding Partner, Majlis Investment Management
9.40am
END INVESTOR PANEL: What motivates the agri-business investor, and what return profile are they looking for?
- What expectations do investors have from their agri portfolio?
- Why did they pick the specific investments they made?
- What return potential are they looking for?
- What do they see as their main expansion areas in agriculture moving forward?
Head of Real Assets & Insurance, PGGM Investments
Member of Investment Committee, Flora Family Foundation / Connexion Capital
Director of the Rural Estate, The Crown Estate
Managing Director, Saumweber Holdings
10.20am
Morning refreshments and networking
FARMING INNOVATION FOR GREATER ROI: NEW TRENDS
10.50am
Examining the business case for GM crops: how clear-cut are the benefits?
- Quantifying the increase in yields: how much of a difference does GM really make?
- Are input costs genuinely lowered, or are fertilizer costs simply replaced by higher seed costs?
- What evidence is there that GM allows expansion into land that is not productive through traditional farming?
School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading
11.20am
Organic farming: can small-scale operations generate largescale returns?
- Assessing the yield per hectare and cost per hectare: is it an economically viable model?
- Can real scale ever be achieved?
- Is the business model dependent on premium pricing, and can it compete with non-organic pricing?
- Does the small-scale nature of these businesses prevent them from being suitable for institutional investors?
Farms Director, Daylesford Organic
11.50am
How can the latest innovation in crop inputs drive the growth of your agri-business?
CEO, Plant Impact plc
12.20pm
Networking lunch
FARMING INNOVATION FOR GREATER ROI: CROP BY CROP CASE STUDIES
1.30pm
How is innovation being used across crop types to drive up yields and reduce input costs whilst managing soil degradation?
This unique session will deliver innovation-led case studies from crop growers across the world, each focusing on specific crop types and all of them answering the following questions:
- How was the opportunity to improve yields identified?
- What level of investment was required, and how easy or difficult was it to find the funding?
- What were the major obstacles to the success of the project, and how were they overcome?
- What role did new technologies play?
- Analysis of the results so far: to what extent have yields been improved and input costs reduced?
- How has soil degradation been managed?
1.30pm
Potatoes & Cereals
Chief Executive Officer, Mriya Agro
1.50pm
Corn & Rice
Former CEO of HLH and Executive Director of CropLife Asia, CropLife Asia
2.10pm
Olives
Managing Director, Frankland River Olive Co
2.30pm
Palm Oil
Chief Executive Officer, New Britain Palm Oil
2.50pm
Afternoon refreshments and networking
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK
3.15pm
What are the drivers behind each of these commodities, and what is the short-, mid- and long-term price forecast?
This new session for 2010 will provide a snapshot forecast of prices for a number of key commodities. Each speaker will address the following questions:
- What are the latest demand and supply trends in this commodity class?
- What are the basic, fundamental drivers of this commodity?
- What opportunities and threats can we expect in the next 12 months, and further into the future?
- What is the short-, mid- and long-term price forecast for this commodity?
3.15pm
Soybeans
Vice President, Commodities Research, Barclays Capital
3.35pm
Sugar
Commodity Strategist, Macquarie
3.55pm
Grains
Managing Editor & Chief Analyst, Strategie Grains
4.15pm
Cocoa
Analyst, Commodities Research, Barclays Capital
4.35pm
